Back to Setups List
Completed Setup

Case Study: S&P 7482 Thursday Low Failed Breakdown

Date: March 12, 2025 Instrument: /ES (Emini S&P 500) Author: SPX Trader
Setup Candlestick Visualizer
Thursday Major Low: 7482 Target 2 Exit: 7506 Target 1 Exit: 7492 Low Tag: 7468 Back-test to 7470 Long Entry: 7485-7487

An in-depth review of how the Wednesday morning /ES trading setup executed using the first type of Acceptance protocol.

The Setup Context

Heading into the session, S&P 500 Emini Futures (/ES) had been consolidating. The broad range had established support at Thursday’s major low of **7482**.

Overnight, ES went into a classic, vertical **elevator down** sell, dropping rapidly from the 7540s down to **7468**. This was a straight, vertical drop covering over 70 points. Instead of attempting to guess where the absolute bottom was, our plan was pre-configured: "Nothing below there of interest until the Failed Breakdown of Thursday’s major 7482 low."

Step-by-Step Execution

This session provided a text-book example of the first type of **Acceptance**—where price tests a significant level from below, rejects, and then reclaiming it to confirm supply exhaustion.

4:10 AM - 5:20 AM

Price plunges elevator-down, flushing through the 7482 support line and registering a local bottom at 7468.

5:35 AM

Price back-tests the 7482 level from below and gets rejected, selling down to 7470 by 6:10 AM.

6:30 AM

ES rebounds and returns back above 7482. The rejection and return confirm there is no supply selling below 7482.

7:30 AM

Long entry triggers upon the recovery holding, executed at 7487.

Trade & Profit Management

Once in a winning position, systematic execution takes over. Predictions are irrelevant. We managed the trade level-to-level:

  • Target 1 (7492): 75% of the position size was closed to capture profit and secure the trade.
  • Target 2 (7506): Closed another portion, leaving a final 10% runner.
  • Profit Protection Mode: Stop-loss on the runner was immediately set below break-even, locking in a green session.

Remember, professional trading isn't about entering 15 times a day or chasing every move. It is about patience, planning your zones, waiting for your edge (Failed Breakdown), and protecting your profits systematically.